Everyone is fascinated by NBA rookies. And why wouldn’t they be? Pulling a rookie in a Top Shot pack means you may just be holding a future All-Star. The potential for these young stars can be endless.
With dozens to choose from, if you could have every Moment from any 2020 NBA rookie, and every Moment they will have in their careers going forward, which ones would you want? Today, we’re going to rank the top 30 rookies based on this criteria.
We’ll be considering their upside, the situation they’re in, what team they play for, and their potential longevity in the NBA.
We have six tiers of rookies: honorable mentions, players that might be good, upside players, the tough cuts, the Top 10, and six top tier rookies. Let’s break it all down.
Listen or download the audio version of the 2020 NBA Re-Draft according to their Top Shot The MomentRanks podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Google Podcasts.
Honorable Mentions: Bottom Tier
30. Grizzlies power forward Xavier Tillman — Second-round pick who has punched above his weight.
29. Thunder guard Théo Maledon — Coming from France, hasn’t been very efficient in playing time this year, but he is only 19.
28. Mavericks guard Josh Green — Isn’t really getting playing time, hard to say much.
27. Suns power forward Jalen Smith — Big fall from being drafted No. 10 overall in the 2020 NBA Draft. Smith has struggled with injury this year.
26. Nuggets guard Facundo Campazzo — Doesn’t have the same upside as some younger players on the list, but has shown some impressive ability to handle the ball.
Players that might be good, but not super sold on right now
25. Rockets power forward Kenyon Martin Jr.
Second-round pick who has vaulted himself into an NBA rotation. He’s shown himself to have some upside on a depleted Rockets team this year. Martin has no Top Shot Moments yet, but it wouldn’t be surprising to get at least one before the end of his rookie season.
24. Rockets small forward JaeSean Tate
At 25 years old, Tate is a little bit older than most rookies. However, he can play as a three and D wing, but really only has so much upside at his size and athleticism.
23. Pistons point guard Killian Hayes
Despite the hype coming out of France, Hayes has performed poorly this year when he’s been healthy, as he’s shot only 33.3% and worse on 3-pointers. Additionally, he’s on one of the worst teams in the East that doesn’t have a ton of upside. There’s still time for him to turn it around, but he probably wouldn’t be a lottery pick if he was drafted today.
22. Celtics point guard Payton Pritchard
Pritchard has shown some ability off the dribble, but he’s also been a reliable spot up shooter when he’s been given the opportunity to play. Though he played better in the first half of the year, I think he’ll be a pretty good player with many Moments in his future.
21. 76ers shooting guard Tyrese Maxey
Maxey has been good in stretches, but hasn’t played a lot of minutes yet. So far, he’s probably outplayed his draft slot, but time will tell if he can blossom even more.
20. Heat forward Precious Achiwua
He hasn’t played particularly well, though he’s had some flashes and has been efficient around the rim. But he’s in a really good place with the Heat and has great NBA-level athleticism. He may be a bit too high ranked here, but he has the tools to have longevity in the league.
19. Grizzlies guard Desmond Bane
He’s shot and made a ton of 3-pointers this year, and he’s hitting them at a 44 percent clip. If he can keep doing that, he will certainly have a place in the league and on Top Shot. His age may limit his upside, but there’s always a spot on an NBA roster for an effective 3-point shooter.
Upside Players with Loads of Potential
18. Wizards guard Deni Avdija
Top 10 pick that has a ton of global appeal as one of the best players to ever come from Israel. He also has a well-rounded game that has a ton of potential to grow. My concern is his scoring efficiency, as he hasn’t shot well so far in his career overseas and in the NBA, at just 41 percent this season.
17. Cavs guard Isaac Okoro
Okoro has not carried over his preseason success into the regular season. Playing on such a bad Cavs team with bad spacing has been a problem for him. He’s not really scoring much in about 30 minutes a game, and not shooting well on 3-pointers (28.5 percent) or at the rim. He’ll need to improve his jump shot and have pieces around him to really make an impact.
16. Pelicans guard Kira Lewis Jr.
He’s played OK in limited minutes behind Lonzo Ball so far this year. Thus far, he’s played at expectations and has started to play better. His outlook is similar to where he was before the season. Lewis definitely has some upside, as he’s flashed some speed when he actually gets the chance to play.
15. Celtics guard Aaron Nesmith
Most people might have him lower, as he hasn’t played well this year. But this is my list. He’s a quality spot up shooter with upside to be a solid role player with secondary ball handling and creating his own shot. Tons of versatility in his game. I’ve been high on him since college, and I still think he has upside to be a good player. I’m interested in buying Aaron Nesmith stock.
The Tough Cuts
14. Timberwolves power forward Jaden McDaniels
Again, this may be a little high here, as a Timberwolves fan. He was a huge recruit coming out of high school, and during his NBA time he’s dispelled some concerns coming out of the University of Washington. He has been hitting 3-pointers as a decent clip and he’s improved his defensive effort, as well. McDaniels is only 20 and has a lot of upside based on his player archetype, despite his team’s performance this season.
13. Pistons small forward Saddiq Bey
I thought Bey should be a mid-to-late first round pick, but I didn’t think he had a super high level of athleticism. But he has taken a ton of threes, and he’s making them at an impressive 38 percent clip, too. The fact that he has been a value-add shooter from day one, makes me think there is a lot of staying power for Bey. There’s a really high floor here.
12. Thunder forward Aleksej Pokusevski
The meme potential is too high on Poku, and he may be this high just because I want him to succeed. Everyone kind of wants a Poku Moment. Even if he were to not play another Moment in the NBA, his /4,000 Triple Badge Moment would still go through the roof. And on top of that, maybe he’ll actually be good. He’s a 7-footer, he can pass, can offer solid rebounding, and is getting a ton of minutes in his rookie season.
11. Knicks power forward Obi Toppin
I was not high on Obi Toppin before the draft. He was a great a scorer at Dayton, but there wasn’t a lot else on the stat sheet that made me think he would be a very good player in the NBA. He doesn’t have size to be a center, but isn’t super quick with lateral movement. But the fact that he plays for the Knicks gives him a huge boost right away, and he’s played solid this year. His dunking ability also push him further up the rankings to.
The Top 10 Rookies
Top 10 starts at ~23:00 in the podcast version.
10. Magic guard Cole Anthony
Anthony is probably going to be a good player for a long time, but he also probably doesn’t have star potential. I don’t see him ever being a prolific scorer, but he does have all of the tips and tricks to be a solid ball-handling guard. Anthony has great control over the flow of the game in the half-court that makes him a true point guard. He hasn’t scored that efficiently, but the team is better when he’s out there and he has a ton of value as more than just a scorer.
9. Spurs small forward Devin Vassell
I don’t think Vassell has star upside, but he can be an elite role player. Vassell is a great defender, has good basketball IQ, and he can take and make the NBA 3-pointers. He has upside to be a starting caliber small forward, and he has a chance to have a long career is a 3-and-D wing. The fact that he can defend and shoot well already, makes me confident he will have a long career in the NBA.
8. Hawks power forward Onyeka Okongwu
I had Okongwu in my top five coming into the draft, and I’m still on him. Like McDaniels, he’s a power forward who can block shots and can develop his three-point shot. He’s a great athlete who has been able to finish shots well. He just has a lot of upside to develop into a regular starter that enables a team to do a lot of different things.
7. Bulls power forward Patrick Williams
Williams was a top five pick who has played well this year and has shown a lot of versatility. He’s strong on the interior, can guard several positions, and has some solid shooting chops as well. He has a ton of upside based on his versatility and his athleticism. He does have some limitations as an on-ball creator, which is why he didn’t make it into the top six.
Top Tier Rookies
6. Pistons center Isaiah Stewart
Stewart has been a beast thus far for the Pistons. This year has been slim-pickings for rookies who have performed well, even at a baseline starter level. Stewart clears that bar for me. He’s killer on the boards and plays with intensity. Stewart has a ton of upside to be a player who is very productive in multiple categories. His game is super physical, and teams are having a hard time dealing with him down low. The way he plays lends itself to great Top Shot Moments that flash.
5. Warriors center James Wiseman
In some ways, Stewart has been what you hoped Wiseman would be coming into this year. Wiseman has underperformed this year in one main category: scoring. The Warriors are a team where Wiseman should have plenty of scoring opportunities alongside Steph Curry, but that hasn’t been the case.
Wiseman still has more upside than Stewart, based on his physical profile and dominance that he is capable of. Wiseman has huge potential to grow into a dominant offensive force with the potential to lead or be second on a team in scoring. He still has room to grow with rebounding and shot-blocking as well. Playing for an exciting franchise in Golden State is a plus for his long-term value.
4. Knicks guard Immanuel Quickley
Quickley is a super exciting rookie who brings a ton to the Knicks. We know how crazy Knicks fans go over Quickley, and I think he could play there for a long time. He automatically gets a Garden boost. While Quickly didn’t play well at Kentucky, he’s been shining all year in New York when he gets to play. Quickley has proven to be incredible scorer this year and very efficient with his shots. He’s sure to have staying power in the NBA for years to come.
3. Timberwolves shooting guard Anthony Edwards
My hometown hero Minnesota Timberwolves first-round pick: Anthony Edwards. He’s already made several Top Shot-worthy highlights, and that’s a positive sign. However, Edwards is scary because he certainly still has very high bust potential. Ultimately, it’s hard to see him continuing to do what he’s doing this year: he’s taking a ton of shots at low efficiency. If he keeps doing that, he will likely plummet down this list.
If you’re betting on Edwards, you are betting he will substantially improve his efficiency. If he can’t do that, then Edwards could easily just become a role player.
Upside-wise, Edwards’s upside is substantially higher than Quickley: he has incredible dunks, will always make amazing highlights, he can hit jumpers, and he can shoot threes. But he has to improve in almost all of those categories, and defensively. Regardless, I’m optimistic about Edwards’s potential and his Moments mimic his upside.
2. Kings point guard Tyrese Haliburton
Haliburton has a much lower ceiling than Edwards, but his floor is very high. He’s already a good NBA player, and he should only continue to get better as his career continues. Haliburton has shown that he can be a rotation player — if not a starter — on a high-quality playoff roster as soon as a year from now. At that point, I have to believe that he’s going to have a lot of opportunities for captivating Top Shot Moments down the road.
Additionally, his Moments are already doing well on the platform, and he’s also into Top Shot and part of the growing community. There’s just such a high chance that Haliburton will be an average NBA player and we’ll see years of Moments from him. I slightly prefer him to Edwards, but I could certainly see the case for either one.
1. Hornets point guard LaMelo Ball
Ball is number one by far, and he should have been the number one pick. The question for Ball is by how many tiers he’s number one, and when can we start to compare him to other elite players on NBA Top Shot? It doesn’t seem too early to start asking questions like Ball versus Ja Morant or Jayson Tatum if you were drafting an NBA team today, especially if he keeps to flash like he has so far this year.
His play has been so far above expectations for Ball for his rookie season. Hornets fans should be so excited about the future with Ball. He’s scored efficiently at every level — at the rim, free-throws, 3-pointers — after struggling as a shooter in the Australian League. But he’s also been incredible as a passer, a disruptor on defense, a rebounder, and especially as a ball-handler.
If you haven’t watched the Hornets this year, you should at least watch some Ball highlights, because you’ll see how impressive Ball looks when he’s ball-handling. There are still questions that remain. But between his physical tools and how much he has already progressed, there is no reason to believe Ball won’t be a perennial All-Star, starting as early as next season.
Who are your go-to Top Shot Rookies?
You know this is just my opinion right? These rookies are just getting started in their careers. But with the season winding down, it’s a good chance to gauge how they’ve performed according to their draft slot thus far.
Have a different opinion on one of the rookies? Reach out to me on Twitter – @MaxMinsker — let’s talk about it!